By Heather Long
The No. 1 question I get from readers lately is: How likely is the Republican tax plan to become law?
Compass Point, a research firm, puts the odds of the tax-cut bill making it to President Trump’s desk at 65 percent. Goldman Sachs, the investment bank that has a lot of alums in the White House, is telling clients the odds are now at 80 percent.
“The tax reform debate is moving forward faster than we or most other observers expected,” wrote Goldman’s economics team.
The likelihood of tax cuts actually happening in 2018 got a major boost last week after the House of Representatives passed its version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but it’s not a slam dunk from here. In sports terms, the GOP has just completed a solid first quarter. There’s a lot more game to play.
Up next are the Senate Republicans, the same group that killed the Affordable Care Act that the House repealed in July. They plan to vote on their version of the tax bill shortly after Thanksgiving. Trump wants the final bill on his desk before Christmas, but even Goldman Sachs thinks that’s unlikely. There are simply too many differences between the two chambers’ legislation. Finding a compromise in conference committee is going to take time — if it’s even possible.
“The conference committee is going to age all of us terribly,” joked Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point.
Trump wants a tax-cut bill — it’s the centerpiece of his economic agenda. Here are the five key hurdles that remain for passage.
Should this just be a tax bill? Or a tax and health-care bill?
As part of their legislation, Senate Republicans are trying to repeal the “individual mandate” that requires nearly all Americans …read more